Nigerian Stock Market Weekly Summary (Week ending Friday, October 17, 2025)

The Nigerian equity market delivered another resilient week, with the NGX All Share Index (ASI) climbing +0.85% to close at 148,977.78—the highest weekly close. Overall market sentiment remained constructive, as broad gains in industrials and consumer stocks propelled YTD returns to +44.39%, up from last week's +42.46%. Market breadth was healthy at 1.39x, with significantly more advancers (61) than decliners (44). However, a notable dip in trade deals (-8.76%) and a mild downturn in market turnover (-2.93%) signal some profit-taking and a cautiously optimistic mood among institutional participants, even as retail traders dominated trade counts.

1. Market Breadth & Noteworthy Trends

• Market Breadth: The market breadth ratio stood at a robust 1.39x (61 advancers, 44 decliners), with advancers representing 34.27% of stocks versus decliners at 24.72%. About 41% of names closed unchanged, indicating stable undercurrents but selective risk-on appetite.
• Turnover & Volume: While market volume ticked up slightly by 0.76%, turnover fell -2.93%, and the number of trade deals dipped sharply (-8.76%), reflecting possible rotation from high-value institutional trades to cheaper mid-cap and retail-driven activity.
• Highs & Lows: There were 8 new highs vs 0 new lows—momentum still favors the upside, despite profit-taking in select sectors.

2. Top Gainers & Losers (Week-To-Date)

• ETF Dominance: Four ETFs made the top-5 gainers list, led by GREENWETF (+28.79%, RSI=76.3), flashing short-term overbought conditions but also signaling outsized institutional interest and momentum plays.
• EUNISELL: Up +10.0% WTD, with an RSI of 80.2 and robust MACD/MA signals—this name now merits a cautious eye for exhaustion/profit-taking ahead.
• TRIPPLE GEE: An interesting move with -9.91% drop WTD, RSI at 37.6 (approaching oversold), and a chunky dividend yield of 5.3%. Value investors may soon take notice.

3. Insights & Predictions

• Turnover Drop: The -2.93% decrease in turnover, despite slightly higher volumes, suggests value-rotation out of heavyweights and increased focus on lower-priced, higher-beta plays (as seen in ETF/retail activity).
• Advancers vs. Decliners: The advancing stocks outpaced decliners, but with over 40% unchanged, there is underlying market indecision—investors are being selective.
• Unusual Volume Standouts:
  • VITAFOAM: Heavily traded by institutional investors—and also ranks among the week's top gainers (+7.41%, RSI=59.5). This marks strong institutional conviction, underpinned by positive MACD and bullish 15D/50D crossover (see sparkline ??).
  • ACCESSCORP: Dominates both institutional and retail trade activity, but slipped -1.91% on the week. RSI is neutral, suggesting sideways consolidation.
• YTD Gainers/Losses:
  • ETFs feature prominently among YTD leaders—institutions are chasing basket trades for exposure.
  • UPDC and EUNISELL are notable for showing up among both WTD top gainers and as high-beta YTD outperformers, suggesting momentum is sticky.
• Stocks with Bullish Momentum (RSI & Technicals):
  • EUNISELL (RSI=80.17): Clearly overbought, sustained by very strong price action and healthy EPS. MACD and moving averages also confirm bullish momentum. Caution for potential pullback after a strong run. (Sparkline: 15D>50D)
  • VITAFOAM (RSI=59.5): Positive MACD histogram and bullish 15D/50D crossover. Supported by both price and volume.
  • UPDC (RSI=50.9): Bullish price and moving averages, high beta; illustrates risk-taking appetite.
• Stocks with Bearish Momentum:
  • TRIPPLEG (RSI=37.6): Sinking RSI, negative MACD histogram and 15D below 50D (sparkline ??). Could see more weakness but oversold conditions may soon bring bargain hunters in, especially with above-market dividend yield.
  • IMG (RSI=40.9): Persistent negative momentum, with price threatening to break recent lows.
  • LIVINGTRUST (RSI=47.0): Sharp losses this week, further downside possible if support fails.
• Dividend Yield Watch:
  • PRESTIGE (+9.76% WTD, 2.5% div) and ACADEMY (-17.92% WTD, 3.5% div) attract both income and momentum investors. TRIPPLEG’s high 5.32% yield, despite being a major decliner, flags bargain-hunting potential.

4. Index Performance Analysis

• Consumer Goods Outperformance: The NGX Consumer Goods Index surged +1.70% this week and now leads the YTD chart at a spectacular +101.56%. Defensive and essential consumer plays remain institutional favorites amidst macro volatility.
• Industrial Strength: NGX Industrial Index topped the week +2.11%, with a robust +52.31% YTD, as construction, cement, and infrastructure spends continue to attract capital.
• Growth Takes a Breather: The NGX Growth Index was the worst weekly performer (-1.35% WTD) despite being up +94.59% YTD, hinting at profit-taking in high-flyers as investors seek more value or income-yielding plays.
• High Dividend Yield Index: The NGX AFR Div Yield Index slipped -0.39% for the week but still boasts a respectable +29.46% return YTD, underscoring the continued demand for income.

5. YTD Top Gainers & Losers Table

6. Patterns, Overlaps & Observations

• Overlap Highlight: GREENWETF is a big weekly gainer but remains a YTD loser (-20.41% YTD). Investors are showing strong tactical interest, but longer-term holders are still underwater—risk of a sharp reversal.
• ELLAHLAKES: Despite being among the top YTD gainers, it dropped -7.27% WTD, suggesting profit-taking or early signal of rotation away from high-performers.
• PRESTIGE: High weekly gainer (+9.76%), also positive YTD, and offers a compelling dividend yield (2.5%).

7. Market Activity & Trader Behaviour Analysis

• Retail vs Institutional: Retail traders accounted for 62.39% of trade counts but only 9.53% of value, while institutions made fewer trades (37.61%) but captured 90.47% of total value, confirming that big block trades and high-value execution remain the institutional domain.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Institutional): ACCESSCORP, VITAFOAM, WAPCO, MTNN, DANGCEM. These are key market barometers; strength in names like VITAFOAM (bullish technicals, high volume), DANGCEM, and ACCESSCORP (where volume dwarfs price change, suggesting accumulation/distribution) should be watched for smart money signals.
• Top 5 Most Traded (Retail): GTCO, UBA, ACCESSCORP, MTNN, DANGCEM. Notably, ACCESSCORP, MTNN, and DANGCEM are favorites across both retail and institutions—sector bellwethers.
• Hidden Insights:
  • VITAFOAM, on heavy institutional flows, may see extended positive price action if momentum persists.
  • ACCESSCORP is the most heavily traded name across both groups, yet it fell on the week, hinting at near-term exhaustion and a potential volatility spike ahead as positions unwind.
  • Divergence in value traded vs trade count/volume highlights significant block trading (institutions) in blue-chips, especially cement (DANGCEM), telecoms (MTNN), and banks (ACCESSCORP, GTCO, UBA).

8. Suggestions for Traders

• Momentum Seekers: Names with bullish momentum (EUNISELL, VITAFOAM, UPDC) could see further upside but watch RSI for fatigue and consider trailing stops.
• Value/Income Hunters: Major decliners with high dividend yields like TRIPPLEG and ACADEMY PRESS PLC may offer bargain entry soon if technicals stabilize.
• Profit-taking Alert: GREENWETF's explosive weekly gain, amidst negative YTD performance, demands close monitoring—potential reversal ahead.
• Sector Rotation: Shift towards consumer and industrial leaders suggests continued resilience in these areas, especially amidst currency stability and ongoing infrastructure themes.
• Watch for Volume/Value Divergence: Heavy volume without price reaction (e.g., ACCESSCORP) signals possible distribution phases; trail positions with caution.

9. Closing Thoughts

The NGX market remains in broad uptrend, but profit-taking and selective interest (especially in consumer and industrials) underscore the need for tactical sector exposure and vigilant risk management. Institutional flow is dictating direction in bellwether stocks, while ETFs are emerging as momentum vehicles for risk-seeking traders. Dividend-seeking strategies retain relevance, particularly as growth stocks falter short term.

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